1. What is the textbook’s definition of probability?
2. If there are 7 green marbles and 4 red marbles in a bag, and you were asked to draw one without looking, what is the probability of drawing one green marble?
3. If you don’t put that green marble back in the bag, what is the probability of drawing a green marble now?
4. What is the textbook’s definition of conditional probability?
5. Using the above “marbles in the bag” scenario, what is a conditional probability question that you can make from it?
6. Now consider the Monty Hall Problem introduced in the following videos:
After watching these videos, we know that if we are given the option to switch doors that, probabilistically speaking, it is in our best interest to switch. Why is the probability of winning NOT 50/50 when the contestant is given the opportunity to switch? (do not tell me that it’s not 50/50 because it is “another percent” – just tell me why it is not 50/50 – after all, there are two closed doors left at the end of the game. Why isn’t it 50/50?)
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