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Week 7 Monthly Retail Sales of Beer & and Liquor at US Stores Worksheet

Week 7 Monthly Retail Sales of Beer & and Liquor at US Stores Worksheet

Question Description

Instructions

Assignments must be completed on MindTap AND a completed workbook with your full completed solutions must be submitted via Sakai. You must submit both in order to receive any credit.

Hardcopies or copies emailed will not be graded.

There is no option for late submissions in MindTap. Failure to submit your submit your assignment on MindTap before the due date will result in zero credit.

Submit your worked data in one single MS Excel Workbook. Start your solution set by using the assignment shell provided on Sakai. Use appropriately labeled worksheets for each problem/section of a problem.

Pay very close attention to the final presentation of your work and make sure it is print-ready. Prepare all spreadsheets so that they are clear, attractive and easy for the untrained eye to follow and understand. While accurate content and precise execution of the techniques is critical, formatting, typographical and grammatical acuteness is also very important. General sloppiness and inconsistent formatting will lower your grade.

Note: Ignore MindTap warning about text-based answers. All open ended questions will be graded as well. In fact, your grade will depend equally on the accuracy of your analytical techniques and your interpretation of the results.

Assignment files should be named as follows:

  • Asg#_FirstInitialLastname
  • e.g. Assignment 1 for Michael Phelps would be named Asg1_MPhelps.xlsx

Question 1. 50 points

The data are for monthly retail sales of beer, wine, and liquor at U.S. liquor stores.

  1. Is seasonality present in these data?
  1. If you answered yes, to Part A, use the StatTools Deseasonalize option and then forecast the deseasonalized data for each month of the next year using the moving average method with a span of 3.
  1. Now use Holt’s exponential smoothing method, with optimal smoothing constants. Does this method outperform the moving average method used in part B?
    Demonstrate why or why not.

Question 2. 50 points

The data are on a motel chain’s revenue and advertising.

A.Use these data and multiple regression to make predictions of the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
In addition to advertising, also try using advertising, lagged by one quarter, as an explanatory variable.
Assume that advertising during each of the future four quarters is $50,000.

Let X1 represent the quarter.

Let X2 represent the advertising.

Let X3 represent the lag1(Advertising).

Let X4 represent the quarter1.

Let X5 represent the quarter2.

Let X6 represent the quarter3.

B.Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.

C.Use Holt’s method to make forecasts for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.

D.Use Winters’ method to determine predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.

E.Which of these forecasting methods would you expect to be the most accurate for these data?


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